Afternoon grain market analysis: Corn and wheat prices slide lower, with soybeans slightly firm…
Corn prices faded to a three-week low today on a round of technical selling likely spurred by the expectation USDA could show 2025 corn plantings exceeding 94 million acres. Wheat prices faced moderate cuts, with a glut of grain still available in the world market. Soybeans failed to follow suit, testing modest gains on Tuesday.
Some modest rains could reach parts of the upper Midwest, eastern Corn Belt and Great Lakes region between Wednesday and Saturday, but few fields are likely to gather more than 0.25” later this week, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts generally warmer- and wetter-than-normal conditions for the central U.S. between March 4 and March 10.
On Wall St., the Dow moved 49 points higher in afternoon trading to 43,511, with 10-year Treasury yields dipping to the lowest levels since December. Energy futures spilled noticeably lower, with crude oil stumbling 2.5% lower this afternoon to fall below $69 per barrel. Gasoline faced losses of around 2%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Monday, commodity funds were net sellers of all major grain contracts, including corn (-10,500), soybeans (-5,000), soymeal (-3,000), soyoil (-5,500) and CBOT wheat (-4,500).
Corn prices are struggling to find forward momentum
Prices touched a three-week low after another round of technical selling on Tuesday. March futures dropped 2 cents to $4.8050, with May futures down 2.25 cents to $4.9475.
Corn basis bids shifted 2 cents lower at two Midwestern processors and inched a penny higher at an Illinois river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.
Canada and Mexico – two of the top agricultural trade partners with the United States – could face 25% tariffs as soon as March 4, with President Donald Trump noting on Monday that “the tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule.” Experts expressed concerns on the negative effects this would have on the entire North American economy, with the automotive industry likely to be hit especially hard.
Meantime, Farm Progress machinery editor Andy Castillo reports that China’s 10% retaliatory tariffs on imported U.S. farm equipment could impact machinery prices across the board. “Similar tariffs aimed at electronics, which are modern machines’ backbone, could likewise push up prices,” he added in his latest Farmer Iron blog. Click here to learn more about what Castillo has discovered in his latest reporting.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports are up 8% year-over-year so far after reaching 531.1 million bushels through February 23. Ukraine, the United States, Brazil, Canada and Serbia were the top five suppliers.
Corn settlements on Monday were for 596,748 contracts.
Soybean prices managed some modest upside today
Some light technical selling helped lead to small gains, although traders are still eyeing a record-breaking production in Brazil, where harvest progress closes in on the halfway mark. March futures added 2.25 cents to $10.3125, with May futures up 1.75 cents to $10.4925.
Soybean prices improved less than 0.25% after some light technical buying on Tuesday.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. March soymeal futures moved more than 0.5% higher, while March soyoil futures faded more than 0.75% lower.
Soybean basis bids trended 5 to 15 cents higher across three Midwestern processors and eased a penny lower at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.
European Union soybean imports in the 2024/25 marketing year are trending 11% above last year’s pace so far after reaching 328.9 million bushels as of February 23. The United States, Brazil, Ukraine, Canada and Togo were the top five suppliers. EU soymeal imports are up 29% year-over-year, with 12.50 million metric tons over the same period.
South Korea purchased 60,000 metric tons of soymeal, likely sourced from South America, in a private deal that closed late last week. The grain is for arrival around July 20.
Soybean settlements on Monday were for 264,657 contracts.
Wheat prices struggle to find any upside
Large domestic and global supplies continue to hinder any significant forward momentum, with a round of technical selling once again sinking prices on Tuesday. March Chicago SRW futures fell 4.5 cents to $5.7450, March Kansas City HRW futures dropped 3.5 cents to $5.93, and March MGEX spring wheat futures lost 6.5 cents to $6.15.
Wheat prices saw another moderate technical setback on Tuesday. Chicago SRW contracts faced losses of around 0.75%.
Russian consultancy Sovecon slightly trimmed its estimates for the country’s 2024/25 marketing year after offering a new projection of 1.551 billion bushels. Sovecon also raised its forecast for the country’s 2025/26 wheat exports with a new estimate of 1.429 billion bushels. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2024/25 marketing year 36% below the prior year’s pace so far after reaching 501.6 million bushels through February 23. Nigeria, Morocco, Algeria, the United Kingdom and Egypt were the top five destinations.
Bangladesh purchased 1.8 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed last week. The grain is for shipment 40 days after the contract is signed.
Jordan likely passed on all offers to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closed earlier today. Prices were regarded as too high, but a similar tender will likely be issued that closes on March 11.
Egypt, which is one of the world’s top wheat importers, has strategic wheat reserves sufficient for the next five months, according to a cabinet statement issued earlier today.
CBOT wheat settlements on Monday were for 130,511 contracts.
Source: https://www.farmprogress.com/markets-and-quotes/afternoon-market-recap
