The department is no longer expecting harvest to break new records, but surpluses will still pressure farm profits…
The U.S. Department of Agriculture slashed expectations for soybeans on Friday in a surprise revision to its production outlook, potentially offering some relief to farmers who have struggled with surplus crops and low prices.
Soybean production is forecast at 4.46 billion bushels, down 3% from USDA’s October forecast. Yields are expected to average 51.7 bushels per acre, a decline of 1.4 bushels from the previous forecast.
“That’s a pretty big change from October to November,” said USDA economist Seth Meyer, who estimated it was the biggest change over those two months since 2012, a major drought year.
The USDA also slightly revised its forecast for corn, lowering production estimates by less than 1% to 15.1 billion bushels. The average yield is expected to reach a record 183.1 bushes per harvested acre, down 0.7 bushels from the last forecast.
Expectations for a record harvest have tempered prices for U.S. corn and soybeans, contributing to tighter farm profit margins. Even with the revisions, farmers are in for a bumper harvest that will keep prices down overall.
Soybean production is still forecast to be 7% higher over 2023, with yield up 1.1 bushels from the previous year. While corn production is expected to be down 1%, yields are up 5.8 bushels from last year.
Those production numbers are expected to go down in the record books: U.S. soybean production and yield forecasts would be the second highest in history. In corn, record yields would contribute to the third-highest production total.
Those rankings are lower than previous USDA forecasts. Previously, the department expected soybean production at a record, with corn production reaching the second-highest in history.
Markets moved slightly higher in reaction to the news, with Meyer saying corn increased by 3 cents and soybeans improved by 5 to 6 cents. However, market response was “moderated” with crop supply still plentiful.
“On the bean side, [there was] a pretty late season yield surprise,” Meyer said, “but was still a plentiful carryout, which is really going to temper the market’s ability to push those prices higher.”
source: https://www.agriculturedive.com/news/soybean-production-lowered-usda-wasde-corn/732528/
